This year’s trip to China is unlikely to coincide with 2019: Nomura

"Significant headwinds remain" for the recovery of outbound tourism from China "in 2024 and 2025," according to a report by banking group Nomura

"Supply-side constraints" have been "mitigated" in terms of the volume and cost of available flights and the availability of Chinese visas to depart, the agency added in a note on Monday.

But a weaker Chinese currency, the state of the domestic economy, "stagnant" income growth and high youth unemployment, compared with other major currencies, mean Chinese consumers' desire to travel abroad has "began now" due to the "demand side."

"We expect Chinese passengers to recover from the current 57.9% (November 2023) to 73% levels in 2019 by the end of 2024, averaging 67% [recovery] for the full year of 2024," Nomura said in a report on Monday.

Still, the banking group said it expects spending by outbound Chinese tourists to "fully recover to 100% of 2019 levels throughout 2024."

According to China Daily, data from the Chinese Academy of Tourism and the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) showed that in 2019, Chinese tourists made 155 million overseas visits and spent US$255 billion.

"It is worth emphasizing that we do not expect a full recovery until 2025 for both international flights and passengers on these flights," Nomura said in his assessment of the state of recovery in outbound tourism from China.

Nomura in November said it had a "more cautious view of China's economic performance" than before, which coincides with recent tourism data leaving China for regional destinations, including the Singapore casino jurisdiction, and also in Thailand, another place commonly popular with Chinese people.

"In general, the recovery of international flights to ASEAN countries has not been good over the past two months," Nomura said of outbound air services from China to regional destinations, referring to clubs in Southeast Asian countries in Monday's report

"On average, flights to ASEAN-6 (Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia) have recovered to 58.1% of 2019 levels, up very slightly from 56.0% in October," Nomura added

Of Singapore's city-state with casino duopoly, the banking group said: "Singapore is still performing best in terms of flights from China, with December's recovery rate reaching 81.6% in 2019 and further up from 78.2% in October."

Many other commentators have cited the potential for softness to negatively impact the Asia-Pacific casino industry in recent recovering Chinese tourist numbers and the impact of China's ongoing campaign against "cross-border gambling" by mainland residents.

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